10 Yr Treasury Climbs to 3.002%

Mortgage Bonds endured another very quiet trading day today. The 4% coupon managed to improve from their opening, staying above support, and closing unchanged. Our Benchmark 4.0% coupon closed at $102.84. While MBS remain above support, we will continue to recommend floating.  Stocks were unable to end on a positive note. The Dow closed down 1.47 points to 16478.41, the S&P 500 lost .62 points to 1841.40 and the Nasdaq lost 10.586 points to 4156.594. Oil closed at $100.14/barrel up 59 cents.

Weekly Survey of Rates from the Mortgage Bankers Association

For the week ending Dec. 20th, 2013. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,000 or less) increased  to 4.64 percent, the highest level since September 2013,  from 4.62 percent, with points increasing to 0.41 from  0.38 (including  the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $417,000) increased to 4.63 percent, the highest level since September 2013, from 4.61 percent, with points remained unchanged at 0.24 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.

The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 3.74 percent, the highest level since September  2013, from 3.66 percent, with points decreasing to 0.29 from 0.35 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.

Housing

US new home sales fall modestly from 5-year peak

Sales of new U.S. single-family homes fell modestly in November from a five-year high and prices pushed higher, indicating the housing market is weathering higher mortgage rates.  The Commerce Department said on Tuesday sales fell 2.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 464,000 units.  Despite the fall from October’s revised 474,000 pace, which was the highest level since July 2008, home sales retained the bulk of the previous month’s revised 17.6 percent increase.

Sales had previously been reported to have increased 25.4 percent in October but to a 444,000 annual pace.  Economists had expected new home sales, which are measured when contracts are signed, to show a 445,000 unit pace in November. Compared with November last year, sales were up 16.6 percent.  Read more

US pending home sales rise 0.2 percent

Signed contracts to buy existing homes rose slightly in November, breaking a five-month negative streak, according to the National Association of Realtors.  Pending homes sales ticked 0.2 percent higher from a downwardly revised reading in October but are still down 1.6 percent below November 2012, the association reported. These signed contracts are an indicator of closed sales in December and January.  Economists polled by Reuters had forecast signed contracts to rise 1 percent in November.  Despite the soft ending to 2013, Lawrence Yun, the association’s chief economist, said that 2013 will end with the best sales total in seven years. Read more

Economic News

Durable orders soar in November, fan new hopes for US economy

Orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods surged in November and a gauge of planned business spending on capital goods recorded its largest increase in nearly a year, pointing to sustained strength in the economy.  The Commerce Department said on Tuesday durable goods orders jumped 3.5 percent as demand increased for a range of goods from aircraft to machinery and computers and electronic products.

Last month’s increase, which outpaced economists’ expectations for a 2 percent increase, more than reversed October’s revised 0.7 percent drop. Excluding transportation, orders rose 1.2 percent, the largest increase since May.  Read more

US jobless claims fall in positive sign for labor market
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week to the lowest level in nearly a month, a hopeful sign for the labor market.  Initial claims for state unemployment benefits decreased 42,000 to a seasonally adjusted 338,000, the Labor Department said Thursday.  Claims for the prior week were revised to show 1,000 more applications received than previously reported. Economists polled by Reuters had expected first-time applications to fall to 345,000 last week. Read more
10 year Treasury hits 3.002%
U.S. benchmark Treasury yields edged higher on Thursday, touching their two-year high of 3 percent, in light trading as most investors stayed out of the market after the Christmas holiday.On light trading volume, benchmark 10-year Treasury notes yielded 3.002 percent in the morning, but ticked lower to 2.994 percent in the afternoon. Yields extended their climb after U.S. jobless claims fell to their lowest in nearly a month, stoking new speculation abut the strength of the recovery.  “Three-point-five percent is probably fair value, or where the 10-year should be, as it tends to track nominal GDP over time,” said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at BMO Private Bank. “The question is, can the stock market overcome that head wind, or the battle between accelerating top-line growth and accelerating interest rates.”  Thirty-year bond yields edged higher, yielding 3.926 percent.
Sources: CNBC, Bloomberg, MMG, Housingwire, MBA
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